Your weekly dose of Ethiopia’s sharpest business, economic, and finance news.
Grab your buna and catch up on what’s moving Ethiopia’s markets and economy this week.
Economy & Finance
IMF Projects 7.2% Growth in FY2025
The IMF forecasts Ethiopia’s economy to expand by 7.2% in FY2025, one of the strongest in sub-Saharan Africa. Growth is expected to slightly ease to 7.1% in FY2026. The projection reflects confidence in ongoing reforms, higher coffee and gold prices, and continued macroeconomic stabilization, though double-digit inflation remains a concern. The government targets 9% growth. Read more
Fitch Maintains Ethiopia in Default
Fitch Ratings kept Ethiopia’s status at Restricted Default, citing unresolved Eurobond and commercial debt payments. While official creditors agreed to $2.5 billion in relief, talks with private bondholders stalled. Fitch acknowledged improved macro indicators, including tripled forex reserves and reduced parallel market gaps. Source: Birrmetrics
Debt Restructuring Talks Stall
Negotiations with $1 billion Eurobond holders collapsed over transparency and treatment concerns, raising potential legal action. The IMF urges continued engagement, while Ethiopia considers innovative solutions, including debt-for-development swaps with the World Bank. Read more
FX Auction Sees Strong Participation
The National Bank of Ethiopia allocated USD to 31 banks at 148.10 birr/USD in its 10th auction, supporting the shift toward a market-determined exchange rate. The system aims to stabilize FX expectations and curb informal market activity. Read more
Inflation Eases to 13.2%
Annual inflation fell to 13.2% in September from 17.5% in August. Food and non-food prices rose modestly, but tighter monetary policy and improved agricultural output contributed to the slowdown. Inflation remains above the National Bank’s single-digit target.
Export Performance Strong
Ethiopia earned over $2.48 billion from exports in Q1 of the fiscal year, a 65% increase from last year, placing the country on track to meet its $9.4 billion annual target. Coffee exports alone rose 47% in Q1 2025/26, with Germany, Saudi Arabia, and Belgium among top buyers.
Banking & Capital Markets
Ethiopian Banks Break into Africa’s Elite
Six Ethiopian banks entered the 2025 Top 100 African Banks ranking. Awash International Bank led the surge, rising 18 spots to #50 with $507M Tier 1 capital and nearly 12 million clients. Financial sector liberalization, foreign investment, and digital banking are driving this continental growth. Read more
CBE Capital Expands Investment Banking Deals
CBE Capital signed agreements with Waliif Investment and Hibret Insurance, supporting export expansion, foreign exchange earnings, and capital market development. The deals reinforce CBE Capital’s role in Ethiopia’s emerging investment landscape. Read more
Infrastructure & Transport
Ethio-Djibouti Railway to Become Holding Company
Supported by a World Bank initiative, the Ethio-Djibouti Railway (EDR) is restructuring into a holding company to expand railway operations, logistics, and engineering services across Africa. EDR is launching private projects, establishing a customs and logistics port, and creating a Training Excellence Center to develop skilled railway professionals.
Etihad Airways Launches Daily Flights to Addis Ababa
Etihad Airways inaugurated daily Abu Dhabi–Addis Ababa flights as part of a historic joint venture with Ethiopian Airlines. The route enhances connectivity between East Africa and the Gulf, currently offering two daily flights with plans to expand further. Source: Capital Ethiopia
Energy & Utilities
Electricity Tariffs Updated for Q4 2018
Residential electricity rates now range from 0.7571 to 5.0990 birr/kWh, with subsidies maintained for users consuming up to 200 kWh. Commercial and industrial rates were also adjusted to support energy sector modernization while protecting low-income households. Source: Addis Insight
Nuclear Energy Commission Established
Ethiopia’s Council of Ministers approved the Ethiopian Nuclear Energy Commission to oversee the country’s nuclear program, including plans for two 1,200 MW reactors by the early 2030s. Russia will support feasibility studies and technology transfer.
Digital & Technology
Ethio Telecom Launches Affordable Cloud Devices
Ethio Telecom introduced the Znexus brand, offering low-cost cloud-enabled smartphones and business-focused virtual desktops. The initiative aims to bridge Ethiopia’s digital gap under the Next Horizon 2028 strategy.
Rural Development & Finance
$110M EIB Funding Secured for Rural Finance
Ethiopia secured $110 million from the European Investment Bank to support the Rural Financial Intermediation Programme (RUFIP III). Funding will expand rural financial access, promote SME growth, and support agricultural-led economic development. Source: Birrmetrics
Social & Poverty Updates
Poverty Rate Expected to Rise to 43% in 2025
Ethiopia’s poverty rate is projected to climb to 43%, driven by conflict, drought, inflation, and economic shocks. Rural areas remain most affected, with limited access to education, sanitation, and electricity. Government reforms aim to support vulnerable households through wage increases, safety nets, and fertilizer subsidies. Read more
Stay tuned for next week’s insights, where we unpack more sectoral trends and policy moves shaping Ethiopia’s future.
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Stay curious, stay caffeinated, — Written by the StockMarket.et Newsroom